SeaIntel Sunday Spotlight

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Week 29Issue 321
In this issue: Maersk cyber-attack: Reliability impact
Schedule reliability of the Maersk operated vessels was impacted in the shortterm, but we see the schedule reliability return to within normal operational fluctuations within the a few days.
Mid-size niche carriers grow 12%
The mid-sized niche carriers continue their rapid fleet expansion, significantly outgrowing market demand growth in the first six months of 2017.
Vessel ages in alliance trades
Vessels deployed on the Asia-NEUR trade lane are on average significantly younger, while those on MED-USEC are much older.
Service changes Capacity injection on the Asia-US East Coast trade lane
Capacity injection on the Europe-Oceania trade lane
More information
Week 27Issue 319
In this issue: Maersk cyber-attack: Operational impact
Following the Maersk cyber-attack, Maersk-operated vessels have seen a slowdown in average sailing speed, but not to a level largely outside the normal operational fluctuations. MSC, Safmarine, Hamburg Süd, HMM and CMA CGM have the greatest exposure to Maersk-operated deep-sea vessels.
44% of lines indicate low cyber-security
In the wake of the cyber-attack on Maersk we have revisited the indications of cyber security awareness amongst the top-50 carriers, a terminal has a server exposed online which with certainty can be taken
New alliances and schedule reliability
The new alliances record high schedule reliability. CKYE suffered a significant drop in reliability during the transition from the old to the new alliance networks, whereas 2M saw an increase in their on-time performance in the same period.
Service changes Change in port rotation on Hapag Lloyd’s Asia-South America East Coast (ASE2) service
CMA launches a new service
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Week 26Issue 318
In this issue: Container vessel scrapping trends
While larger and younger container vessels have increasingly been scrapped since 2000, the 2016-2017 period has seen unprecedented levels of scrapping, with exceptionally young vessels being scrapped. 2017 is likely to see continued high levels of scrapping.
Hapag-Lloyd lost efficiency from CSAV
With the Hapag Lloyd merger with UASC going ahead, the German carrier is already announcing staff reductions in order to retain efficiencies. However, data shows that the CSAV merger caused 11% efficiency loss which has not been regained.
Capacity growth in ATL and non-alliance trades
Mediterranean-USEC has seen massive injection of capacity, and will continue to see injection in 2017-Q3. Asia-ISC is projected to slow down the significant capacity injection seen in recent years.
Service changes Carriers to revise the port rotation of EPIC/EPIC2/IOS service
2M carriers to revise the port rotation of AE6-TP6/Lion-Pearl service
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Week 25Issue 317
In this issue: Fuel prices dominate rate formation
Despite the fact that fuel prices have become a smaller part of the total cost picture, the fuel price level continues to dominate rate formation. The transfer mechanism for fuel to freight rates will give carriers a net positive contribution of 300M USD in 2017-Q2.
Reported piracy incidents since 2004
There was a sharp increase in piracy incidents from 2008 to 2011 driven by an increase in piracy in the Gulf of Aden and East Africa (including Somalia) during this period. Piracy incidents have been declining in recent years, and 2017 looks to extend this pattern.
Y/Y Capacity growth in E/W trades
Asia-North Europe, Asia-USEC and Asia-USWC are projected to see Y/Y capacity growth in 2017-Q3, while Asia-Mediterranean is projected to see a Y/Y decrease in 2017-Q3.
Service changes CMA CGM launches MED-West Africa service
CMA/HMM/KMTC/SCI/Pendulum Express Lines launch Asia-ISC service
More information
Week 24Issue 316
In this issue: Weaker start to 2017 than estimated
Revisions of data from Container Trade Statistics reduce global growth estimates for the beginning of 2017 significantly, and backhauls are a stronger driver of growth than head-hauls.
Average vessel size in non-alliance trades
All trade lanes show a significant increase in average vessel size, though balanced by the carriers with the closure of services to keep over-capacity at reasonable levels.
Service changes 2M add Cristobal to TP16/Emerald service
CMA/APL/COSCO launches a ISC-MED service
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Week 23Issue 315
In this issue: Suez wins back south of Africa sailings
Higher oil prices mean that sailing south of Africa is no longer economically viable, and the USEC-Asia sailings have reverted to Suez. Panama is still the preferred USEC-Asia routing option.
Average vessel size per alliance
The Asia-Europe trade shows an upward trend in average vessel size, with 2M leading this increase. While Asia-USEC is impacted by the Panama Canal, the Asia-USWC trade lane did not show any particular vessel size patterns.
Liner connections breed liner connections
Countries which are already well connected tend to receive even more liner shipping connections, whereas poorly connected countries are losing out.
Service changes OOCL and Yang Ming to launch new Intra-SEA service
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Week 22Issue 314
In this issue: Share of operated vessels per alliance
Ocean Alliance and The Alliance show a balanced share of vessel operators, while 2M has a major share of Maersk Line operated vessels. 2M is predominantly presenting services that are operated by both carriers, while OA and TA show the opposite.
18% fewer deep-sea services since 2012
The phase-in of the new generations of large and ultra-large container vessels is having a significant impact on the number of physical services offered in the deep-sea trades.
Knock-On Reliability – Europe and NAM
The knock-on reliability for vessels that arrive on time in North Europe and the US West Coast is not vastly different, whereas the difference is great for Mediterranean and the US East Coast depending on which sub-region the origin port is in.
Service changes CMA CGM to offer Azteca Service
ANL to launch a new service
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Week 21Issue 313
In this issue: Carrier Q1 financial and volume results
Carriers are finally returning to positive territory, with CMA CGM being the most profitable carrier in 2017-Q1. Volumes have also increased Y/Y, with MOL and OOCL posting significant increases.
Are contract rates strengthening?
Carriers are pointing to strengthening contract rates in the market as a sign that 2017 will be significantly better than 2016. But are they strengthening? And by how much?
Online forms: Freight Forwarders disappoint
Of the 126 questions that were asked via online forms, only 39.7% responses were recorded. While the top-10 freight forwarders performed the best with a response rate of 46.7%, the overall performance leaves much to be desired.
Service changes MOL to purchase slots on SC1 service
Carriers to launch two new services
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Week 20Issue 312
In this issue: Online forms: Carriers ignore customers
Of 114 questions asked via online form or general email, only 26.3% were answered by the carriers. 39.5% of carriers answered at least 1 of 3 questions. Top-10 carriers performed the best, with 50% response rate and 60% responding to at least one question.
Very high niche carrier growth
Regional niche carriers are continuing their rapid fleet size expansion, primarily driven by injection of larger vessels. For the largest niche carriers, capacity has expanded an average 14% since January 2017.
Knock-On Reliability Effects: Intra-Asia
97.7% of vessels arriving on time in Nagoya also arrived on time in the next Asian port call on deep-sea services, while for Qingdao the knock-on reliability of on-time vessels was just 86.9%. For vessels arriving late in Vostochny, an incredible 64.1% arrived on time in the next Asian port, while for Tokyo the number was just 15.5%.
Service changes Carriers to terminate CNX/IFX service
Carriers revise port rotation of GEM service
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Week 19Issue 311
In this issue: Knock-On Reliability Effects – Deep Sea
The order in which ports are called in the origin region may have a significant effect on reliability in the destination region.
Increasing capacity volatility
The key deep-sea trades are showing increasing volatility in the amount of capacity deployed from one week to the next. Only the Asia-East Coast South America trade have broken this trend, with higher rates as a result.
No improvement in carrier mobile apps
The number of top-50 carrier offering a mobile app has decreased from 23 to 22 compared to last year, while functionalities seem to have improved ever so slightly.
Service changes MSC to terminate Angola Express service
Maersk Line to Close WAF 3 service
More information