SeaIntel Sunday Spotlight

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Week 21Issue 313
In this issue: Carrier Q1 financial and volume results
Carriers are finally returning to positive territory, with CMA CGM being the most profitable carrier in 2017-Q1. Volumes have also increased Y/Y, with MOL and OOCL posting significant increases.
Are contract rates strengthening?
Carriers are pointing to strengthening contract rates in the market as a sign that 2017 will be significantly better than 2016. But are they strengthening? And by how much?
Online forms: Freight Forwarders disappoint
Of the 126 questions that were asked via online forms, only 39.7% responses were recorded. While the top-10 freight forwarders performed the best with a response rate of 46.7%, the overall performance leaves much to be desired.
Service changes MOL to purchase slots on SC1 service
Carriers to launch two new services
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Week 20Issue 312
In this issue: Online forms: Carriers ignore customers
Of 114 questions asked via online form or general email, only 26.3% were answered by the carriers. 39.5% of carriers answered at least 1 of 3 questions. Top-10 carriers performed the best, with 50% response rate and 60% responding to at least one question.
Very high niche carrier growth
Regional niche carriers are continuing their rapid fleet size expansion, primarily driven by injection of larger vessels. For the largest niche carriers, capacity has expanded an average 14% since January 2017.
Knock-On Reliability Effects: Intra-Asia
97.7% of vessels arriving on time in Nagoya also arrived on time in the next Asian port call on deep-sea services, while for Qingdao the knock-on reliability of on-time vessels was just 86.9%. For vessels arriving late in Vostochny, an incredible 64.1% arrived on time in the next Asian port, while for Tokyo the number was just 15.5%.
Service changes Carriers to terminate CNX/IFX service
Carriers revise port rotation of GEM service
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Week 19Issue 311
In this issue: Knock-On Reliability Effects – Deep Sea
The order in which ports are called in the origin region may have a significant effect on reliability in the destination region.
Increasing capacity volatility
The key deep-sea trades are showing increasing volatility in the amount of capacity deployed from one week to the next. Only the Asia-East Coast South America trade have broken this trend, with higher rates as a result.
No improvement in carrier mobile apps
The number of top-50 carrier offering a mobile app has decreased from 23 to 22 compared to last year, while functionalities seem to have improved ever so slightly.
Service changes MSC to terminate Angola Express service
Maersk Line to Close WAF 3 service
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Week 18Issue 310
In this issue: Schedule Reliability in 2017-Q1
Except for Asia-North Europe, all major East/West trades have declined in schedule reliability over the past year. Hamburg Süd has the highest 2017-Q1 schedule reliability of 78.9%, but none of the carriers have recorded a positive Y/Y change.
Shipping line Price Wars: Current Status
A closer look at the main ex-China trades shows a mixed view of the price wars which devastated the carriers in 2016. Whilst the Asia-Europe price war is completely called off, that is not the case in all trades.
Sources of optimism in IMF April Report
The IMF has published the latest WEO report, indicating finally signs of recovery for the major world economies.
Service changes MOL to join KME service
PIL to offer new Far East-West Africa service
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Week 17Issue 309
In this issue: Strong capacity injection in past 2 months
The top-100 carriers have injected substantial capacity in the past 7 weeks – forcing a rally in TC rates. However, on a year-on-year basis the injection remains moderate.
Asia-ECSA: The rare success story
The management of the supply/demand balance in the Asia-ECSA trade lane is a best practice example of how to raise freight rates to profitable levels, but can the Asia-ECSA success be replicated?
Alliances: North America-NEUR Transit Times
The trade lane from North America to North Europe will see a gain of 21 distinct port-pairs against a loss of 11. The biggest concern however will be the transit times, as 30 port-pairs will experience deteriorating shortest transit times for a total of 114 days added.
Service changes Maersk Line to revise the port rotation of the ME3 service
CMA CGM to update the port rotation of WEMED service
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Week 16Issue 308
In this issue: Are reefer-heavy trades more reliable?
Three out of the four reefer trade lanes analysed show on average a higher level of schedule reliability, when compared to non-reefer trades. On the other hand, when delays occur, they are on average longer in reefer-heavy trade lanes.
Transpacific Alliance concentration
The amount of capacity controlled by alliances on the Transpacific has risen significantly in the period 2012-2017 to the USEC, but not the USWC. Furthermore, there is no link between concentration and rate levels.
Alliances: North America-MED Transit Times
The trade lane from North America to Mediterranean will see few changes in connectivity, as 11 distinct port-pairs will be gained against nine lost. 113 portpairs will see transit times unchanged, while 20 will see it improve and 19 will see it deteriorate.
Service changes OOCL to purchase slots on PS1 service
Carriers to launch a new service
APL to join Asia-Australasia service
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Week 15Issue 307
In this issue: Transatlantic Alliance capacity injections
Both Transatlantic trade lanes will experience a significant injection of capacity compared to 2016-Q2, with Med-USEC and North Europe-USEC showing a 19.4% and 5.6% increase, respectively. Further, there does not appear to be any April capacity shortage.
Digitization: It is not about technology
A trip through the last 20 years of eCommerce history in the container shipping sector clearly shows that if this was a matter of technology, the whole industry would have become digital long ago.
Alliances: NEUR-North America Transit Times
The trade lane will experience a rather positive development in terms of port- pairs, as 29 distinct port-pairs will be gained against nine lost. The transit times will improve slightly, but overall the trade lane remains mostly unchanged.
Service changes CMA CGM to become operator on EURAF5/WEWA service
Yang Ming to start TSE service
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Week 14Issue 306
In this issue: Alliance trade lane capacity injections
Asia-USEC will see a massive alliance capacity injection of 18.0% relative to 2016-Q2, while Asia-USWC will see alliance capacity drop 3.4%. Asia-North Europe and Asia-Mediterranean alliances will grow 3.1% and 4.6% Y/Y, respectively, and 2M is the driving the capacity injection in all trade lanes except Asia-Mediterranean.
All major lines have BEC cyber risks
BEC – or Business Email Compromise – rose 1300% from January ’15 to June ’16 according to the FBI. All major container lines remain exposed, with multiple new fraudulent domains established in 2017.
Alliances: MED-North America Transit Times
While the Asia-Europe and Transpacific trade lanes will see a massive impact in terms of lost and gained port-pairs and transit times, the Med-North America trade lane will remain rather stable.
Service changes Carriers to introduce North Europe Turkey Express Service
CMA CGM to purchase slots on USW service
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Week 12Issue 304
In this issue: Transpac: up to 330M$ BAF overcharge
9 months after the expansion of the Panama Canal, the TSA has still not changed their USEC BAF formula. This leads to fuel compensation for smaller vessels which no longer reflect reality.
Alliances: Asia-MED Transit Time
While the new alliance networks will lead to loss of product diversity, transit times will be shorter, on average. Of 179 Asia-MED port-pairs that remain across the old and new networks, 90 will have a shorter transit time, while 54 will see it increase.
Service changes Carriers to close MSW service
APL to purchase slots on PS1 service
Carriers to terminate RES service
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